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Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post that collects reader discussion and announcements. This edition lists meetup changes and election-related information, requests survey responses for AI grantmaking research, and highlights a new AI prediction market and a community-notes project.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, its weekly open discussion post, with announcements about local meetups, a Boston election guide, an AI safety grantmaking survey and two projects focused on AI markets and community notes. The post invites readers to discuss any topic while sharing time-sensitive community notices and opportunities to contribute to research.
The post reports meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, directing readers to the original post for details. It also gives an early notice for a Bay Area ACX meetup scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. in San Francisco. The post says a separate event announcement may follow.
On local politics, the author says the Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide and says more guides may appear in the coming week. The author was still exploring whether a Bay Area guide could be produced. The post also reminds readers that San Francisco mail-in ballot registration was due by the end of that Monday and names Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement. These are statements in the post; it does not provide the guide’s recommendations or further detail on the endorsement.
The author is seeking responses from people familiar with AI and grantmaking for a survey asking participants to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second survey asks participants to predict how the author would answer the first, with the stated aim of distinguishing differences in worldview from random variation in how respondents choose weights. The post also spotlights MNX, a real-money prediction market on AI that its co-founder Stephen Grugett has announced, and Common Notes, a project from Goodheart Labs described as a system for community notes across websites.
Community Notices Meet AI Projects
The post brings several kinds of activity to one audience: local gatherings and election information, a request for specialist input on AI safety funding, and introductions to tools that use markets or collaborative notes to organize information. For readers in the listed cities, the most immediate relevance is practical: meetup details and, in San Francisco, a registration reminder tied to a deadline stated in the post.
The survey could contribute to the author’s continuing effort to model parts of AI grantmaking. Assigning weights to many possible accomplishments asks respondents to make judgments about how different outcomes should be valued; the alternate version is intended to help the author distinguish those judgments from response noise. The post does not report survey results or explain how the collected data will be used beyond that modeling effort.
MNX and Common Notes are presented as projects rather than established outcomes. MNX offers a way to trade contracts tied to AI companies and capability benchmarks, while Common Notes aims to extend community-contributed annotations beyond a single platform. Their mention signals interest in new ways of evaluating AI-related claims and activity, but the thread does not independently assess either project’s performance or reach.
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A Weekly ACX Community Post
Open Thread 456 is framed as a weekly visible open thread where readers can post about any subject or ask informal questions. The author also points to an unofficial subreddit, Discord server, bulletin board and in-person meetups. The post says most content is free, while some material is available to subscribers.
This edition combines that ongoing discussion format with a set of short notices. It refers to earlier work on modeling AI grantmaking and says the author is continuing that work; it also directs readers to prior efforts without detailing them in the supplied text. The meetup, election, survey and project notices are therefore updates within a recurring community channel, rather than a single reported policy decision or research finding.
The post includes a brief comparison concerning AI market expectations: it says that, despite discussion of Anthropic’s API falling from $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion, both Polymarket and MNX still price it at around $2 trillion. The thread does not define what the figures represent, provide a timestamp for those prices, or explain the contract terms. They should be read as a snapshot reported by the author, not as independently verified valuations.
“This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever.”
— Astral Codex Ten author, in Open Thread 456
community notes collaboration tool
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Details Still Awaiting Follow-Up
The source is a community post, not a detailed report on the projects it mentions. It does not include the survey results, methodology beyond the stated questions, or a timetable for the grantmaking model. It is also unclear how the responses will be analyzed or whether the model will later be automated.
For the local notices, the post points readers elsewhere for the specific meetup changes and gives no further information about whether a Bay Area voting guide will be produced. It identifies a Saturday meetup date but provides no calendar year, so the date cannot be placed confidently on a current calendar from the supplied text alone. The stated San Francisco registration deadline is likewise not accompanied by a year.
The post’s descriptions of MNX and Common Notes do not establish their availability, terms, safeguards, user numbers or independent performance. It also offers no supporting details for the reported prediction-market prices or the comparison involving Anthropic’s API. Those figures and descriptions remain attributable to the post and should not be treated as verified market data or confirmed company valuations.
AI safety grantmaking survey forms
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Survey Responses and Event Updates
The immediate next steps identified by the post are for interested readers to complete the AI safety accomplishment survey and, if they have additional time, fill out the alternate version predicting the author’s answers. The author says the responses would help with data collection for the grantmaking-modeling effort, but gives no closing date or planned publication date for the findings.
Readers seeking local information are directed to the original post for the changes in seven meetup locations. The author says a separate post about the Bay Area gathering may follow and says additional election guides may be published in the coming week. The thread also describes the San Francisco meetup as an early notice, so readers should check for any later details before relying on it as a complete event listing.
MNX and Common Notes are presented as projects readers can explore, with the post directing readers to their respective links. The thread does not announce a formal launch schedule, future milestones or results for either project. Further information depends on updates from the project teams and the author.
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Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is Astral Codex Ten’s weekly open discussion post, where readers can raise questions or discuss any topic. This edition also includes community announcements and project links.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask participants to do?
The main survey asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An alternate survey asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the main one.
What is MNX?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI, where users can trade futures tied to AI company stocks, company revenues and targets such as the Epoch Capabilities Index. The thread does not provide the market’s full terms or independent verification of its prices.
What is Common Notes?
Goodheart Labs describes Common Notes as a system for community notes across websites. According to the post, it combines AI-generated notes, user-written contributions and voting, with a browser extension intended to display notes on different sites.
Are the meetup and election dates current?
The post gives a Saturday, Oct. 24 meetup time and says San Francisco mail-in ballot registration was due by the end of a Monday, but the supplied text does not specify a calendar year. Readers should consult the original post or relevant official sources for current dates and requirements.
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